02 February, 2023, LONDON –

7 of the 10 experts in a base rate panel believe mortgage rates will rise after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the base rate to 4% today.

The panel, compiled by the personal finance comparison site finder.com, consists of 10 academics, mortgage experts, economists and savings experts who were asked a range of questions about the future of mortgage rates, deals being pulled and property prices.

How long will it take for mortgage misery to hit?

Many of the panellists (70%) believe that mortgage rates will rise, but they have differing opinions on how long it will take for homeowners to feel the impact.

David McMillan, professor of finance at the University of Stirling, said: “I would expect to see mortgage providers respond in kind with the rate rise. However, I do not see significant disruption to the mortgage market as a result of a rate rise. The rise, should it happen, is well advertised ahead of time.”

Rob Peters, founder of Simple Fast Mortgages, agrees: “Mortgage lending will continue albeit at an increased cost. Mortgage products generally forward price meaning the expectation of higher rates is already priced into some products.”

David Hollingsworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, said: “Fixed mortgage rates will have largely priced in the increase so a rate hike should have limited impact on those looking for certainty in their payments… Borrowers on variable rates are the ones that will feel the impact initially.”

This sentiment is echoed by Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, who said: “Those with tracker mortgages will are likely to see their payments increase almost immediately”

Coghlan added: “Those on standard variable rates or variable mortgages are likely to see rate rises in the weeks following another hike from the Bank of England.”

Stephen Sillars, content manager at Chip, said: “Lenders have reacted very quickly when it comes to mortgages, as the chaos following Liz Truss’s premiership showed us back in September.”

How will the property market be affected by the rise?

Property prices fell for a fifth consecutive month in January – the longest decline since 2008-09 – and according to some of the panel, the rise in rates could continue to hit the demand for property. Dr Luciano Rispoli, senior lecturer at the University of Surrey, said “I anticipate many potential buyers will refrain from purchasing housing because of many disappearing fixed rate products (or due to unaffordable variable rates products).”

Jon Ostler, CEO at finder.com, agreed: “The housing market is likely to become quite subdued”.

David McMillan, professor of finance at the University of Stirling, cautioned: “Perhaps a bigger concern for mortgage providers will be house price falls, combined with falling real wages and higher unemployment.”

Will deals be pulled as a result of the rise?

It is possible that some mortgage deals will be taken off the market as a result of this rise. Nitesh Patel, strategic economist at Yorkshire Building Society, said: “I expect the number of high LTV products will be pulled until there is a clearer picture on prices.”

David Hollingsworth agreed, but added: “It’s entirely normal for lenders to withdraw tracker or discount deals after a base rate change, in order to reassess before relaunching again. So a sudden flurry of variable rates being pulled shouldn’t be a cause for alarm.”

Are mortgage rate rises inevitable?

The good news for homeowners is that 3 of the panellists (30%) don’t think mortgage rate rises are guaranteed. Kate Anderson, deputy editor at finder.com, said: “The rate rise has already been priced into the mortgage market. In fact, what we are likely to see is some fixed rates come down from their October peak as mortgage providers look at the long-term landscape for the base rate.”

When asked if he thought rates would rise, Phillip Rush, Founder and Chief Economist at Heteronomics, said “No. The market already broadly prices a 50bps hike and has still not fully passed through the decline in 2yr and 5yr swap rates” while Jon Ostler believes that while “Rates could have already peaked” it isn’t all good news as “higher rates are going to be around for longer.”

For more detailed information on the panel and their thoughts and predictions, visit: https://www.finder.com/uk/base-rate-survey

If you are interested in appearing in the next panel, please email: matt.mckenna@finder.com